Fallout from the Iowa Caucuses – Some obvious, some surprising

I just checked out Intrade and Centrebet for the markets on the nominations and presidential elections.

The market swings for the Democrats didn’t surprise me at all but the Republican ones threw me for a loop.

Unsurprisingly, on the back of his resounding victory and simply brilliant victory speech, Barack Obama has surged past Hillary on Intrade. He’s now at 52.0 vs her 46.5. He’s rising and she’s falling. To put this reversal in perspective, on January 1, Hillary was at nearly 69.7 and Obama was at 20.7! This is a huge swing. Centrebet still has Hillary ahead for the overall victory in the Presidential election. In that market she’s at $2.35 and Obama’s paying $2.85. Any way you slice it, Obama has become a serious contender for the title of front runner and Hillary’s camp must be in disarray.

On the Republican side the big winner has been John McCain. McCain has roared from a December low point of 6.8 to now sit in the post-Iowa Republican lead at 34. To be honest, this stunned me. With 20/20 hindsight, it probably shouldn’t have. McCain’s respectable showing at 13% demonstrated that he’s not out of it by a long shot. With New Hampshire approaching on the 8th, McCain is almost certain to produce a solid showing and the markets are factoring in that knowledge. Centrebet has McCain at $8.50 for winning the Presidency vs. Giuliani’s $8.00.

Another surprise for me was that Giuliani’s numbers didn’t move all that much post Iowa. I thought that his drubbing would produce a sharp decline in his numbers, but that didn’t pan out. He’s still hovering around 30 on Intrade for the Republican nomination and at $8.00, as mentioned above, on Centrebet for the Presidency. So while McCain has made ground on Giuliani, the market appears to expect bigger things from Giuliani on February 5th’s “Super Tuesday”.

Huckabee remained relatively static which was also surprising to me. I guess people understand that America doesn’t consist entirely of religious screwballs. There’s a freaking bunch of them in Iowa though.

Sadly, Ron Paul (my Republican) declined sharply in January, halving from around 8 in early Jan to around 4 now. I’m disappointed to say the least.


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