You know who predicted today’s results pretty well? The Obama campaign

I was just checking the predictions in the Obama campaign’s leaked delegate estimates and was floored. They nailed the hell out of it!

Here are their predictions:

    Vote % Pledged Delegates
State Delegates Obama Clinton Obama Clinton
Ohio 141 46% 53% 68 73
Rhode Isl. 21 42% 57% 8 13
Texas 193 47% 51% 92 101
Vermont 15 55% 44% 9 6

The actual numbers, or at least decent current estimates (taken from DailyKos) are:

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8


Total (Nowhere near final)

Obama ~99
Clinton ~94

Ohio (141 delegates, punching in results with 97% reporting here)

Clinton 73
Obama 68

So as far as I can tell they were perfect on Vermont and Ohio, one delegate off in Rhode Island and maybe two delegates off in Texas?

Holy crap.

UPDATE: A couple of people pointed out that there are updated results over at DKos. These are different but not vastly different.

These are still not final numbers, since all counting of the Texas caucuses — stuck at about 35% — has yet to resume. But for now, Clinton has picked up a few delegates.

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas Total (Nowhere near final)

Clinton ~97
Obama ~96

Ohio (141 delegates)

Clinton 76
Obama 65

So Vermont and Rhode Island are still basically as estimated. Clinton is doing a touch better in Ohio and Texas than predicted. All in all a bang-up job by the Obama prediction team 🙂


7 Responses to “You know who predicted today’s results pretty well? The Obama campaign”

  1. europeanview Says:

    Nice find, tha guys are mucho professional! I upped this on reddit.

  2. tommy paine Says:

    it looks Texas is going BETTER than the Obama estimators projected, not worse.

  3. The Presidential Candidates Says:

    The reality of the situation is that Obama’s chances of finishing ahead of Clinton in the pledged delegate count actually raised yesterday as it was essentially a wash and Obama had a solid lead going into it.

    The perception though is that Clinton had a big comeback victory. That perception is the real problem, not the reality.

    The thing is, at this point, it’s clear to me that Clinton knows she cannot win the pledged delegate count, they just want to get a bit closer and finish out with some wins so that they can get the Superdelegates behind them and steal this nomination.

  4. shwee Says:

    Personally I’m a clinton supporter so it’s nice to see she is catching up to Obama. Looks like the race for presidency is going to drag on a little longer though.

  5. msa4 Says:

    The delegate count is crucial, and the Obama team has been doing an excellent job. But there are some who say that the popular vote is equally important. Although this seems to make sense, there are problems with the idea of a national popular vote.

    I try to explain why at

  6. Justin Says:

    As an independant who is backing obama…I want to say that no matter who is on top..the super’s need to stay the hell out of it and let the voice of the people stay as is.

  7. Edmund Says:

    While the popular vote is important we must look at the states as essentially being 1 vote each. Barack has won 28 states so far, that is a telling number

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