Democratic nomination – what happens next?

Okay, so estimates of Senator Barack Obama‘s current pledged delegate lead seem to be around 125 delegates. There are 12 contests remaining with a total of 611 pledged delegates up for grabs.

I posted previously about the Obama campaign’s accurate estimates of the March 4th results. I think it’s time to take a look at what they believe will happen next.

   
Vote % Pledged Delegates
State Date Delegates Obama Clinton Obama Clinton
Wyoming 3/8 12 60% 40% 7 5
Mississippi 3/11 33 62% 38% 20 13
Penn. 4/22 158 47% 52% 75 83
Guam 5/4 4 55% 44% 2 2
Indiana 5/6 72 53% 46% 39 33
N. Carolina 5/6 115 53% 45% 61 54
W. Virginia 5/13 28 43% 55% 13 15
Kentucky 5/20 51 42% 56% 23 28
Oregon 5/20 52 52% 47% 28 24
Montana 6/3 16 55% 44% 9 7
S. Dakota 6/3 15 57% 42% 8 7
Puerto Rico 6/7 55 45% 54% 25 30
        Totals 310 301

The Obama campaign thinks they’ll be beaten in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

The two largest remaining states, in terms of delegates available, are Pennsylvania (158) and North Carolina (115). Obama’s team believes they’ll split those two with an 8 delegate win to Clinton in Pennsylvania and a 7 delegate win to Obama in North Carolina.

Pollster.com‘s most recent Pennsylvania polling data seems to indicate that a 5 point Clinton win looks about right for Pennsylvania. Likewise the numbers for North Carolina show Obama ahead by roughly the numbers listed above.

Adding Indiana into that mix with 72 delegates available means that those three states alone have well over half the remaining delegates. The predictions above show that there will be almost no change in the relative delegate differences.

So basically, as far as I can see, unless something monumental happens, there’s very little chance of Obama losing the pledged delegate race. The pledged delegate race will, in turn (and in this case almost necessarily) drive the superdelegate numbers.

I’m still waiting to read more about the noise I expect Senator Clinton’s posse to start making about the delegates from Florida and Michigan. I would be a lot of money that it’s a play she’s going to make. Assuming that Howard Dean and the DNC stand tall and stick to their rules, it would appear that Senator Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee for President of these United States.

Advertisements

One Response to “Democratic nomination – what happens next?”

  1. Austin Says:

    I’m not political at all. I believe that no matter who gets in office there will be a great failing of the people. However, this particular race is interesting because of it’s historic significance so I’ve been all over it. When have we ever gotten a woman this far in the race and a black man this far in the race so close to the same time as the first female speaker of the house? This is an amazing time which is why I’m watching the race. Do I believe in anyone running on either side of the political coin? No, but I do recognize the historical significance of this race. It’s been quite interesting to watch. What will be even more interesting is exactly how well O does in Indiana. That will be interesting to me.

    Austin

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: