Archive for the ‘Hillary’ Category

Democratic nomination – what happens next?

March 6, 2008

Okay, so estimates of Senator Barack Obama‘s current pledged delegate lead seem to be around 125 delegates. There are 12 contests remaining with a total of 611 pledged delegates up for grabs.

I posted previously about the Obama campaign’s accurate estimates of the March 4th results. I think it’s time to take a look at what they believe will happen next.

   
Vote % Pledged Delegates
State Date Delegates Obama Clinton Obama Clinton
Wyoming 3/8 12 60% 40% 7 5
Mississippi 3/11 33 62% 38% 20 13
Penn. 4/22 158 47% 52% 75 83
Guam 5/4 4 55% 44% 2 2
Indiana 5/6 72 53% 46% 39 33
N. Carolina 5/6 115 53% 45% 61 54
W. Virginia 5/13 28 43% 55% 13 15
Kentucky 5/20 51 42% 56% 23 28
Oregon 5/20 52 52% 47% 28 24
Montana 6/3 16 55% 44% 9 7
S. Dakota 6/3 15 57% 42% 8 7
Puerto Rico 6/7 55 45% 54% 25 30
        Totals 310 301

The Obama campaign thinks they’ll be beaten in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

The two largest remaining states, in terms of delegates available, are Pennsylvania (158) and North Carolina (115). Obama’s team believes they’ll split those two with an 8 delegate win to Clinton in Pennsylvania and a 7 delegate win to Obama in North Carolina.

Pollster.com‘s most recent Pennsylvania polling data seems to indicate that a 5 point Clinton win looks about right for Pennsylvania. Likewise the numbers for North Carolina show Obama ahead by roughly the numbers listed above.

Adding Indiana into that mix with 72 delegates available means that those three states alone have well over half the remaining delegates. The predictions above show that there will be almost no change in the relative delegate differences.

So basically, as far as I can see, unless something monumental happens, there’s very little chance of Obama losing the pledged delegate race. The pledged delegate race will, in turn (and in this case almost necessarily) drive the superdelegate numbers.

I’m still waiting to read more about the noise I expect Senator Clinton’s posse to start making about the delegates from Florida and Michigan. I would be a lot of money that it’s a play she’s going to make. Assuming that Howard Dean and the DNC stand tall and stick to their rules, it would appear that Senator Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee for President of these United States.

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You know who predicted today’s results pretty well? The Obama campaign

March 5, 2008

I was just checking the predictions in the Obama campaign’s leaked delegate estimates and was floored. They nailed the hell out of it!

Here are their predictions:

    Vote % Pledged Delegates
State Delegates Obama Clinton Obama Clinton
Ohio 141 46% 53% 68 73
Rhode Isl. 21 42% 57% 8 13
Texas 193 47% 51% 92 101
Vermont 15 55% 44% 9 6

The actual numbers, or at least decent current estimates (taken from DailyKos) are:

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas

Total (Nowhere near final)

Obama ~99
Clinton ~94

Ohio (141 delegates, punching in results with 97% reporting here)

Clinton 73
Obama 68

So as far as I can tell they were perfect on Vermont and Ohio, one delegate off in Rhode Island and maybe two delegates off in Texas?

Holy crap.

UPDATE: A couple of people pointed out that there are updated results over at DKos. These are different but not vastly different.

These are still not final numbers, since all counting of the Texas caucuses — stuck at about 35% — has yet to resume. But for now, Clinton has picked up a few delegates.

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas Total (Nowhere near final)

Clinton ~97
Obama ~96

Ohio (141 delegates)

Clinton 76
Obama 65

So Vermont and Rhode Island are still basically as estimated. Clinton is doing a touch better in Ohio and Texas than predicted. All in all a bang-up job by the Obama prediction team 🙂

Democratic Nomination – What will happen on March 5th (Yes, the day after)

March 4, 2008

So according to my new favorite political analyst Al Giordanao over at The Field, today is going to be a delegate victory for Obama.

So what will Clinton do in response?  I don’t have time to go into detail as I’m about to run out the door, but look for her to do one of two things.

First she could acknowledge that there’s no “clean” way for her to win and gracefully bow out, throwing her full support behind Obama.

After you stop laughing, come back and read the second option.

The other course she can and, I believe, will take is to start lobbying louder and harder that the Florida and Michigan delegates be seated at the convention.

So expect, come March 5th, to hear Hillary Clinton railing about how unfair it is that the Michigan and Florida voters will be disenfranchised.

There is, however, one key question about that position; If you thought the decision was wrong Hillary, why did you abide by it and not campaign in either state?  Seemingly if you thought it was wrong before it mattered to your nomination status, you could have come out and said so.  You could have taken a stand saying “This is wrong.  I’m going to campaign in Florida and Michigan and do everything in my power to make sure the voters have their voices heard.”

When you wait until you win to start bleating about it, it looks bad.  It looks like politics as usual.  It looks Clintonian.

Texas and Ohio: Predictions

February 22, 2008

I’ll flesh this out a little later with some supporting details from around the place, but Obama is going to win both Ohio and Texas.  This means that in about a week, the contest will effectively be over and Clinton will concede the next day.

I’m prediction a Clinton concession speech some time on March 5th.

A President does what’s right – especially when it’s hard

February 12, 2008

Barack Obama took time out of his busy campaign, obviously the most important contest of his life so far, to vote today on the Dodd ammendment to strip the FISA bill of retroactivity immunity.

Another Democratic Presidential candidate did not take time out of her busy campaign to vote.

A President should stand up for the American people. A President should do what’s right, even at personal cost and risk. Anyone can keep doing the things that are important to them, a President does what’s important to us.

He is Presidential. She is not.

Rant ends.

Obama sweeps!

February 10, 2008

Wins today in The Virgin Islands, Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington.  Awesome news.

Intrade has him back up to 62.5 vs Hillary’s 38.0.  Even better, Obama got more delegates today than his campaign had predicted.

Fantastic news all round.

I’m in love with a man.

January 11, 2008

Dennis Kucinich has come through for me and demanded a manual recount in New Hampshire. I love you Dennis Kucinich. That’s right. Love.

I still think Hillary has lost a huge opportunity here. If she had stood up and said exactly the same things Kucinich has written, I think she would have mobilized this country in her favor.

I’m not sure what I hope happens next. Actually, that’s a lie. I hope that it is shown that there were discrepancies and Obama was the victim. I hope Obama is given the victory. I hope it happens so that all those pundits who came up with “explanations” for the discrepancies are shown to be the prevaricators I believe them to be.

Hillary’s tears.  Obama’s mishandling of Hillary’s lack of likeability.  The ordering of the names on the ballot.  The Bradley Effect.  Etc, etc, etc.

What a story that would be.

Hillary for Democracy!

January 9, 2008

A stunning announcement from Hillary Clinton’s campaign staff this morning; Hillary has demanded a recount in Nashua and Manchester, two of the largest precincts in New Hampshire.

From a statement released earlier:

“This country has had too many election intrigues in recent history. Although I think the pollsters were just plain foolish to write me off in New Hampshire, such a discrepancy [between polling numbers and actual vote counts] demands serious investigation. As such, I formally demand a manual recount in the Manchester and Nashua precincts. I also invite Senator Obama’s campaign to be heavily involved in the process. While Barack and I disagree vehemently on many things we are united on the importance of Democracy to this nation.”

“Let there no doubt, people who chose to write my campaign off have egg on their faces today. America is ready for the type of change that an administration crafted by me will bring. Let’s bring on the recount, protect our democratic process and verify that the people of New Hampshire are the change drivers this country needs.”