Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

You know who predicted today’s results pretty well? The Obama campaign

March 5, 2008

I was just checking the predictions in the Obama campaign’s leaked delegate estimates and was floored. They nailed the hell out of it!

Here are their predictions:

    Vote % Pledged Delegates
State Delegates Obama Clinton Obama Clinton
Ohio 141 46% 53% 68 73
Rhode Isl. 21 42% 57% 8 13
Texas 193 47% 51% 92 101
Vermont 15 55% 44% 9 6

The actual numbers, or at least decent current estimates (taken from DailyKos) are:

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas

Total (Nowhere near final)

Obama ~99
Clinton ~94

Ohio (141 delegates, punching in results with 97% reporting here)

Clinton 73
Obama 68

So as far as I can tell they were perfect on Vermont and Ohio, one delegate off in Rhode Island and maybe two delegates off in Texas?

Holy crap.

UPDATE: A couple of people pointed out that there are updated results over at DKos. These are different but not vastly different.

These are still not final numbers, since all counting of the Texas caucuses — stuck at about 35% — has yet to resume. But for now, Clinton has picked up a few delegates.

Vermont (15 delegates)

Obama 9
Clinton 6

Rhode Island (21 delegates)

Clinton 12
Obama 8

Texas Total (Nowhere near final)

Clinton ~97
Obama ~96

Ohio (141 delegates)

Clinton 76
Obama 65

So Vermont and Rhode Island are still basically as estimated. Clinton is doing a touch better in Ohio and Texas than predicted. All in all a bang-up job by the Obama prediction team 🙂